Two sandboxes. The first reconstructs platform GMV from active fans. The second estimates a single creator’s monthly take-home after the 20% fee. Neither is tax advice, and neither knows your traffic quality.
Priors: 132M active fans, $4.90 monthly spend yield, 2.5M active creators. Change them.
GMV = active fans × monthly spend × 12
Subscriptions + PPV + tips, then × 0.8. Management fees are not included because they are not the platform.
Platform mean active creator is $2,520/year. If your annualised net is near that, you are the mean, not the median, and not the top 1% (~$83k on the 33% share restatement).
It will not tell you whether 120 subscribers is realistic. It will not price TikTok ads. It will not estimate tax in your jurisdiction. It will show you that the 20% fee is the simple part, and the distribution is the hard part. For concentration math see creator earnings.